Economic Indicator Forecast

Abstract?If you come to a fork in the road, take it.? (Yogi Berra). The ambiguity of this popular quote seems to epitomize the pervading sentiment of economists in the U.S. and afield; we are headed for global economic change. As tension and misgiving mount in the Middle East, crude prices have consort the gamut of consumer expectation, yet even now, nearly six years later on 9/11, there remains a vast dubiety when and where crude prices will settle. This write up will examine several(prenominal) economic indicants as each pertains to and/or is affected by the crude oil industry. Economic count ons from numerous sources for each indicator are examined in an effort to develop an 18-month forecast circumstantial to the crude oil industry.

Crude Oil Economic index number ForecastIn an ever-changing world, analyzing historical data in an effort to pull to startleher some certainty about the future seems easy bounteous in theory: political and civil unrest historically leave in revolution; scientific advancements historically result in a better quality of life. So what of historical macroeconomic trends? The Federal Open Market Committee in 2005 predicted moderate GDP growth, higher unemployment, and higher interest order in 2006 based on historical data; they were precise close on all accounts (Economic Advisory Committee, 2006).



Nonetheless, Ben Bernanke noted in his testimony before Congress ?? economic forecasting is further from a precise science, we have no choice simply to regard all our forecasts as provisional and subject to revise as the facts demand? (Economic Advisory Committee, 2006). With this caveat firmly ingrained, this paper will examine several economic indicators and attempt to forecast future trends over a period of 18 months.

sell SalesThe National Retail Federation (NRF) released its conservative yet affirmative 2007 forecast in early January predicting slower growth in the retail sales industry (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants);...

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